Forbes says GDP data ‘encouraging’ despite economy flatlining in latest quarter

Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes has insisted Scotland’s latest GDP figures are “encouraging” – despite data showing the economy flatlined in the final three months of 2024.

Scottish Government figures showed the economy recorded 0% growth in real terms over the period October to December.

However separate data for the month of December alone indicated growth of 0.6% was recorded in the last month of 2024.

Many levers to grow our economy lie with the UK Government and we remain deeply concerned by the cost-of-living crisis, rising energy costs and the potential impact of the increase in national insurance employer contributions in the UK Budget

Over 2024 as a whole Scotland’s GDP grew by 1.1% compared with 2023, the Scottish Government figures revealed – with this slightly above the 0.9% growth recorded by the UK over the same period.

UK figures also showed the economy grew by 0.1% in the final three months of 2024, and by 0.4% in December alone.

In Scotland the data for October to December showed that the services sector – which makes up the bulk of the economy – grew by 0.2%, however the production sector shrank by 1.1% over the period.

Ms Forbes, the Scottish Government’s Economy Secretary as well as Deputy First Minister, said overall the figures were “encouraging”, adding that they showed “a 0.6% increase for December and an overall growth of 1.1% in Scotland’s economy over the past year, which is forecast to strengthen further”.

She highlighted measures by Scottish ministers, saying: “With a focus on driving growth and investment, our budget for 2025-26 almost triples capital investment in the offshore wind supply chain to £150 million and provides funding to grow businesses at home and abroad.

“In addition, the First Minister has recently announced a £25 million Just Transition Fund to support the future of the Grangemouth industrial cluster.”

However Ms Forbes added: “Many levers to grow our economy lie with the UK Government and we remain deeply concerned by the cost-of-living crisis, rising energy costs and the potential impact of the increase in national insurance employer contributions in the UK Budget which will have damaging consequences for businesses.”

Scottish Secretary Ian Murray said: “Long term growth remains the top priority of our Plan for Change to put more money in people’s pockets and raise living standards right across the UK.

“Ensuring everyone has access to well-paid work is key to that, and our Get Britain Working Plan will help reduce inactivity and reward hard work with a true living wage, while the biggest overhaul of employee’s rights in a generation is ending exploitative zero-hours contracts for nearly 80,000 Scottish workers.

“Investment is vital too. Aberdeen-based Great British Energy is backed by £8.3 billion of UK Government funding, we’re ploughing £1.4 billion into local growth projects over the next 10 years in Scotland and this week the Prime Minister announced £200 million to invest in the future of Grangemouth.”