UK pandemic planning determined not to repeat ‘mistakes’ of Covid amid nationwide ‘worst case scenario’ exercise that includes Highland Council and plots how to deal with a new outbreak that claims 840,000 lives

Anyone living through the Covid pandemic in the UK must surely share the view that another pandemic is among the very last things that any Briton could want to see.

Primarily it was the terrible loss of life, often preceded by the forced distancing from loved ones, and the devastation of national life - economic, social and institutional.

But it was the latter that has led to a hangover - both economic and institutional - that has yet to abate and dominates public discourse up to the present.

Almost all bodies around the UK have been fighting dual campaigns to get back on track after the systemic shock of Covid while working on pandemic preparedness.

The outlook for any future pandemic is not based on positive outcomes but on what the UK government calls a “reasonable worst-case scenario”.

On that basis, serious planning is under way across the whole length of the country.

This year some members of the North of Scotland Regional Resilience Partnership will take part in the UK government’s “national pandemic response exercise”.

That was a direct response to Module 1 of the UK Covid Inquiry which found there were nine “significant flaws” and made eight recommendations.

The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, MP Pat McFadden said: “We must learn lessons from the Covid pandemic as we cannot afford to make the same mistakes again.

“But we will plan in a way that recognises the next crisis may not be the same as the last”.

The government said that pandemic planning is being stepped up “with unprecedented exercise between government, emergency services and nations and regions”.

It is not difficult to see why. The UK risk register holds a more dire assessments as a a new pandemic was considered to be “Highly unlikely (5-25%)” and “Catastrophic”.

So by working from a worst case scenario, it is hoped that by developing systemic resilience the country will fare better even if that scenario does not happen.

The scenario, however, does look bleak: “The reasonable worst case scenario is based on an unmitigated respiratory pandemic with an unassumed transmission route and a high attack rate, with four per cent of symptomatic infections requiring hospital care and a case fatality ratio of 2.5 per cent.”

And that assumes: “50 per cent of the UK’s population fall ill during the whole course of the pandemic, with about 1.34 million people estimated to require hospital treatment, possibly resulting in up to 840,000 deaths.”

To be clear, the government is not saying 840,000 people will die, instead by planning for such an outcome it would be better placed to deal with less devastating outbreaks.

Among the statutory bodies taking part in the response exercise is Highland Council - its own risk register places a pandemic as “likely” and “major”.

That was in an audit committee report from January on “Civil Contingencies - Pandemic Diseases” which considered the risk to “Operational and Service Delivery”.

What operational and service delivery translates to is all council business ranging from education to social work to bin collections to social security payments.

The report stated: “There is a risk that a new virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity and for which there is no vaccine.”

It then lists more than a dozen potential impacts but it really gets down to the nub when it discusses issues people will be familiar with: “Impacts can be long-lasting.

“This may result in staff unable or unwilling to attend work impacting the delivery of critical functions. High levels of anxiety in the workforce.

“Children, teaching and support staff unable to attend school, with potential temporary closure of school buildings. Temporary closure of other council buildings.

“Increased demand on healthcare services. Increased demand on bereavement services.

“Increased demand for financial/welfare support for vulnerable people and other residents”.

In a Red-Amber-Green score rating up to 16, civil contingencies - pandemic diseases was rated 16.

Scotland’s Standing Committee on Pandemic Preparedness issued a major document last November called “Pandemic Ready: Safeguarding Our Future Through Preparedness”.

It referred to the above worst case scenario and drew conclusions about how to tackle a future pandemic through five main recommendations containing 15 sub-recommendations.

They are:

• The establishment of a Scottish Pandemic Sciences Partnership

• Fostering connectedness among the academic and wider pandemic preparedness community

• Identifying and securing the effective use of data for pandemics

• Horizon-scanning and the role of innovation for pandemics

• Integrating the behavioural sciences and a focus on inequalities into future pandemic preparedness.

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